by Demian Russian
Maxim Group Senior Media Analyst John Tinker will weigh in on Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) in an exclusive, live interview on Playground Radio tonight, September 1st, at 8:00PM Eastern. Mr. Tinker recently initiated coverage of Sirius XM for Maxim Group with a BUY rating and a $1.40 price target.
“It’s dollar price may be masking an oligopolistic quality of fundamentals that should attract a broader following.”
– John Tinker, Maxim Group Senior Media Analyst
In his August 18th initiation report, Mr. Tinker laid out a compelling case for the attractiveness of Sirius XM’s current valuation. He compared Sirius XM’s EBITDA growth rate to traditional media companies and compared Sirius XM’s EV to EBITDA multiple to Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to show Sirius XM’s current discounted multiple. By 2012, he sees FCF approaching $0.10 and even “some kind of share buyback as possible.” Tinker believes that Sirius XM’s quality franchise and growth prospects, combined with its financial and operating leverage, “suggests that a higher premium is justified.”
John Tinker, Maxim Group Senior Media Analyst
Mr. Tinker has worked extensively in the media business as an equity analyst, private equity investor and fund manager. Prior to joining Maxim, he managed Steamer Capital, an investment firm. From 1996-1998, he was Managing Director at Sandler Media’s private equity fund. Previously, Mr. Tinker was the media/internet/entertainment analyst at ThinkPanmure, where he was the only analyst to recommend Google at its IPO price. In the 1990′s he co-founded Montgomery Securities (now Bank of America) media & communications division after stints at Furman Selz and Morgan Stanley. He graduated from Exeter College, Oxford University with an M.A. in Politics, Philosophy and Economics.
Tonight’s Playground Radio program will be hosted by Demian Russian, with Dennis “Cos” Costa and Brian “Newman” Rayl. After tonight’s interview with Mr. Tinker, a discussion about the latest happenings in the world of Satellite Radio will follow. Listeners are welcome to call in and join the live discussion at (347) 934-0239. Playground Radio can be heard live Wednesdays at 8:00PM Eastern.
Previous episodes of Playground Radio are available to be streamed and downloaded as an Mp3 file or via iTunes. Further information about Playground Radio can be found at the Playground Radio Home Page. Tonight’s episode of Playground Radio can be heard live at the following link:
Position: Long SIRI
Contact the Author: demianrussian@satelliteradioplayground.com
I will be in the gym but will listen to the replay. Please ask him about the difference between his 5 yr EBITDA growth rate of 24% compounded and his 14 times EBITDA multiple. Thanks!
Great that you are getting all the media analysts. Those are the Wall Street professionals that are truly respected and have impact. Very smart that you have headed in this direction.
I am starting to listen to the replay right now. Just the first 15 minutes is already awesome. This analyst is great. He really went into the details of valuation. Multiples – EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, doing discounting and future FCF multiples with history of the 90s terrestrial valuations. Get this analyst on every month! Best yet!
He quoted John Malone saying Content is King provided you have distribution.
That 50 minute interview was one of the best evaluations of a media company I have ever heard in 20 years. Tinker ranks up there with Jessica in his knowledge of the industry.
Wow! Congrats on getting that interview. Wow!
I gotta say one of the strongest theories I have heard yet was when he said if this market does not value Sirius appropriately on its EBITDA growth rate, Liberty has an opportunity to make a move when the standstill is over and they may be able to buy on the cheap.
In a way that is scary. But he is absolutely right. If the market doesn’t value Sirius appropriately on a multiple basis , Liberty may start salivating like Pavlov’s dog!
One last thing. That interview actually reminded me of one of the best analyst interviews I ever saw – About a decade ago Louis Rukeyser interviewed Jessica Reif Cohen on Wall Street Week. It was the same pinpoint knowledge of the media industry that Tinker just demonstrated on your show.
The guy just raised the bar for every analyst that covers Sirius.
i hope david bank was listening to the radio show last night and was taking notes on how to do his job!! great job guys,and great guest.
Does anybody know where you can get a copy of John Tinker’s initiation research report? He was excellent and his analysis is right on target. I would enjoy reading his full report.
Demian – My opinion is that after Stern signs this stock goes to Tinker’s $1.40 target by the end of December. He was that impressive on your show.