By Brian Newman Rayl
Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is set to release their first quarter financial and operating results tomorrow, Tuesday, May 3rd, and will be hosting a conference call at 8:00 am ET. The highest volatility in the stock price has been on earnings days, so it is important to know what to expect.
Subscribers
Sirius XM’s biggest source of subscriber additions come from the new car manufacturers. 2011 was a huge year for the automotive sector, with companies like Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE:HMC) posting large year-over-year gains. In fact, the only real losers in Q1 were the brands that were discontinued during 2010. In the first three months of 2010, the OEMs sold 2,529,719 vehicles, while selling 3,057,251 vehicles during the same time period in 2011. This represents an increase in cars sold of 527,532 vehicles or 20.9%.
Given these numbers, I expect Sirius XM to announce approximately 200,000 subscriber additions during the quarter, bringing them to 20.4 million subscribers.
Churn
The first quarter historically is one of the weakest quarters for the company. One reason is because subscribers who received Sirius XM radios as holiday gifts a year ago are seeing their annual subscriptions come up for renewal and historically many of those subscriptions expire. The good news is that the retail market for Sirius XM has been suffering for some time, leaving fewer and fewer retail subscribers to churn out during the quarter. In 2010, Sirius XM reported a 2.0% self-pay churn rate. I expect that number to either stay the same, or drop to 1.9%. Read More
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