Posts Tagged ‘Brian “Newman” Rayl’

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI): Previewing the Q1 Numbers

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Posted 02 May 2011 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Brian Newman Rayl

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI)Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is set to release their first quarter financial and operating results tomorrow, Tuesday, May 3rd, and will be hosting a conference call at 8:00 am ET. The highest volatility in the stock price has been on earnings days, so it is important to know what to expect.

Subscribers

Sirius XM’s biggest source of subscriber additions come from the new car manufacturers. 2011 was a huge year for the automotive sector, with companies like Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE:HMC) posting large year-over-year gains. In fact, the only real losers in Q1 were the brands that were discontinued during 2010. In the first three months of 2010, the OEMs sold 2,529,719 vehicles, while selling 3,057,251 vehicles during the same time period in 2011. This represents an increase in cars sold of 527,532 vehicles or 20.9%.

Given these numbers, I expect Sirius XM to announce approximately 200,000 subscriber additions during the quarter, bringing them to 20.4 million subscribers.

Churn

The first quarter historically is one of the weakest quarters for the company. One reason is because subscribers who received Sirius XM radios as holiday gifts a year ago are seeing their annual subscriptions come up for renewal and historically many of those subscriptions expire. The good news is that the retail market for Sirius XM has been suffering for some time, leaving fewer and fewer retail subscribers to churn out during the quarter. In 2010, Sirius XM reported a 2.0% self-pay churn rate. I expect that number to either stay the same, or drop to 1.9%.  Read More

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Wunderlich Securities’ Matthew Harrigan to Weigh in on Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Tonight

Posted 30 Mar 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Wunderlich SecuritiesWunderlich Securities media analyst Matthew Harrigan will be weighing in on Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) tonight, Wednesday, March 30th, at 8:00 pm Eastern during an exclusive, live interview with Playground Radio. Harrigan downgraded Sirius XM from a BUY to a HOLD rating and lowered his price target from $2.00 to $1.65  last Wednesday in response to news that Howard Stern’s production company One Twelve Inc. and Stern’s agent Don Buchwald had filed a lawsuit against Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) with the Supreme Court of the State of New York.

Harrigan noted in his March 23rd report that Sirius XM’s current stock valuation “likely cannot accommodate the uncertainty engendered by the suit — even if it ends up being meritless.” While Harrigan views some overhang on the stock due to the uncertainty surrounding the lawsuit resulting from the lack of details currently available, he believes that what matters most for Sirius XM in the longer-term is a sustainable auto sales SAAR and Satellite Radio’s conversion rates, rather than “transient near-term moves.”  Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) Buying Back Debt

Posted 25 Mar 2011 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Debt, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Brian Newman Rayl

Sirius XMSirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) announced a tender offer for the repurchase of the 3.25% 2011 debt worth approximately $98 million. Sirius XM has offered $1,007.50 per $1,000 principal amount beginning March 24th, 2011. The tender offer expires on April 20th, 2011. The repurchase price provides investors of those bonds a 0.75% premium to turn in their shares early, but allows for the normal interest payment to be made in April. If all shares are tendered, Sirius XM would record a $735,000 one time charge on extinguishment of debt, in addition to the ~$440,000 due to the initial issuance discount. This ~$440,000 is an accounting line and is not actually a cash outlay for the company.

Many investors have become tired of the extinguishment of debt line item that has seemed to plague Sirius XM over the past few years, but it means that the company is actively working on paying off and refinancing debt which is generally seen as a positive. Sirius XM is paying off bonds that are at 3.25% interest. By paying this off 6 months early and recording the charge off on debt, Sirius XM will be saving money. If all bonds are tendered, Sirius XM will save itself from paying $1,592,500 in the fourth quarter of 2011. After subtracting the premium that Sirius XM is paying of $735,000, the company will save $857,500.  Read More

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Does Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Survey Give Expansion Insights?

Posted 17 Mar 2011 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Brian Newman Rayl

Sirius XMSirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) may be looking to expand their internet radio offerings further, according to a survey that has been received by some subscribers. The survey asks question regarding various internet radio companies, including Pandora, Slacker, Clear Channel’s (PINK:CCMO)  iHeart Radio, and CBS’s (NYSE:CBS) Last FM to name a few. The survey asks you if you have ever heard about these companies and if you have used them recently.

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) List of Internet Competition

What is peculiar about the survey is that out of all of the companies on the list, the only competitor that brings up more in depth questions is the selection of Pandora as an alternative listening choice. Upon selecting Pandora, the survey gives another set of questions asking what it is that you like about Pandora, what you dislike about Pandora, and which service you feel provides the greatest choice in music. It asks that you rank a list of ten items in order of importance as your reasons for using Pandora. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Q4 Subscriber Preview

Posted 02 Feb 2011 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Brian Newman Rayl

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI)Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be holding their fourth quarter and full year 2010 conference call on Tuesday, February 15th, 2011.

Over the previous four quarters, Sirius XM has pre-announced several metrics prior to announcing the conference call date. Several people have voiced concern that Sirius XM has not released anything so far this quarter. Rumors have been thrown out that perhaps the company missed their subscriber guidance for the year, that churn skyrocketed because of the loss of Bubba The Love Sponge, or that debt is finally crushing the company after the re-signing of Howard Stern, all of which are preposterous.

Prior to 2010, Sirius XM (or the individual companies prior to the merger) rarely released any financial metrics or subscriber numbers prior to the conference calls unless they hit a milestone such as surpassing the next million subscriber level.

Auto sales were robust for the fourth quarter of 2010. To put this in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009 auto makers sold 2,619,518 vehicles. With this number of vehicles sold, Sirius XM was able to add 257,028 subscribers. Keep in mind that this was during a very tough economic time, and many of the vehicles that were being sold during that time period were economy-style vehicles, which historically do not have a good conversion rate for Sirius XM. Read More

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TrueCar Analyst Jesse Toprak to Discuss Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and the Auto Industry — Tonight At 8:00PM ET

Posted 19 Jan 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Jesse Toprak to discuss Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends & Insights at TrueCar, Inc., will be discussing U.S. auto sales and all of the latest news from the Detroit Auto Show in a live, exclusive interview on Playground Radio tonight, Wednesday, January 19th, 2011, at 8:00 p.m. ET. With auto sales so important to Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) subscriber growth and business model, the current state as well as the future outlook for U.S. auto sales will be discussed. Mr. Toprak also attended the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and will be offering his thoughts on Sirius XM and internet radio as well. A true industry expert, Toprak tracks the leasing segment and the automotive credit market closely as well.

TrueCar.com’s Jesse Toprak continues to be one of the most frequently quoted automotive analysts of this decade. After running several franchise dealerships in the Midwest, he spent nine years with Edmunds.com, helping the site transform from a newcomer to an industry leader. Jesse studied at Beloit College, London School of Economics, and Marmara University for his B.A and received his MBA from Northern Illinois University.

Tonight’s interview with Jesse Toprak will be conducted by Demian Russian with Brian “Newman” Rayl. After tonight’s interview with Mr. Toprak, a discussion on all of the latest in the world of Satellite Radio will follow. Listeners are welcome to call in and join the live discussion by dialing (347) 934-0239 and following the voice prompts by pushing #1 on your keypad to speak to the host. Read More

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CEoutlook’s Amy Gilroy to Recap CES, Discuss Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Internet Radio — Tonight at 8:00PM ET

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Posted 12 Jan 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Media, Radio Industry, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

CEoutlookCEoutlook Editor Amy Gilroy will be recapping the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and discussing Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and internet radio’s presence at this year’s show in a live, exclusive interview with Playground Radio tonight, Wednesday, January 12th, at 8:00 p.m. ET. Gilroy will be discussing the flurry of CES announcements regarding internet radio in the car as well as giving her thoughts on the new Sirius XM radios from Alpine Electronics. From all of the new tablet computer announcements, the new GPS holographic displays, to the new Ford (NYSE:F) Focus electric car, Amy Gilroy will be recapping this years CES with her veteran insight. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI): The Year In Review Part 5 — The Year Of Howard Stern

Posted 04 Jan 2011 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Brian “Newman” Rayl

Sirius XM's (NASDAQ:SIRI) Howard SternIt was well known that Howard Stern’s 5-year contract would be expiring at the end of 2010. What was not known was if Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) would be keeping Stern or if he would retire or move on to another competing company or platform. There was a ton of talk in the media about how Howard Stern was no longer relevant to radio, how Sirius XM paid way too much for Stern, and yet that Sirius XM would fail if it lost Stern.

In August, TALKERS magazine ranked Howard Stern as the #2 Most Important Radio Talk Show Host of All Time behind Rush Limbaugh. Stern went on a tirade when a caller asked him to respond. TALKERS magazine also put Howard in the #32 position of the 2010 list, citing his dwindling importance.

On August 4th, Sirius XM Radio hosted their second quarter conference call. At the end of the call, citing a question from the audience, Mel Karmazin stated that the company was in active negotiations with Howard Stern and they hoped to have a deal signed before the third quarter conference call. This news set the media ablaze and Howard Stern was yet again the topic (and target) of numerous articles. So much for dwindling importance, huh TALKERS?

As the third quarter conference call approached, there was more and more discussion regarding the future of Howard Stern. One of the first rumors (started by Howard himself) was that Howard Stern was leaving Sirius XM Radio – and radio altogether – to become the replacement for Simon Cowell as a judge on American Idol. Other rumors included being courted by terrestrial radio provider Clear Channel (OTCBB:CCMO), starting his own radio service, going the way of subscription podcasting, or moving over to an internet radio service such as Slacker or Pandora. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI): The Year In Review Part 3 — The Year Of Music

Posted 31 Dec 2010 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

This is part 3 of a multi-part review of the milestones and achievements of Sirius XM during 2010.

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI): The Year of Music

By Brian Newman Rayl

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) plays host to many commercial free music channels with a large variety of categories and niches. The amount of music programming on the air is truly phenomenal and the content that Sirius XM provided during 2010 in addition to its regular programming would take pages upon pages to list, so I’ll just go over the key highlights here. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI): The Year In Review Part 2 — The Year Of Debt Reduction/Refinancing

Posted 31 Dec 2010 — by Brian Newman Rayl
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

This is part 2 of a multi-part review of the milestones and achievements of Sirius XM during 2010.

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI): Debt Reduction and RefinancingBy Brian “Newman” Rayl

2009 was a scary year for Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) investors, subscribers, and the company management themselves. In March of 2010, the Satellite Radio service provider was days away from defaulting on major loans that would have forced the company into bankruptcy. Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ: LMDIA, LCAPA, LINTA, LSTZA) stepped in and provided the financing that Sirius XM needed in exchange for 40% of the company. While the shareholder dilution was disheartening, it kept the company out of bankruptcy and ended up earning investors a lot of money on their blood, sweat, and copious tears. At the end of 2009, Sirius XM had over 3.2 billion in debt on their books. What a difference a year makes!

In January, after Sirius XM pre-released its subscriber additions for full-year 2009, Moody’s Investor Services upgraded the Sirius XM Corporate Faily Rating (CFR) from “Ca” to “Caa1″ noting improved liquidity, but noting that the “Caa1″ rating was still considered “junk” status. Standard & Poor’s also upgraded the company’s debt from “B-” to “B,” reflecting the company’s debt leverage and weak interest coverage.

March 2010 was the beginning of the company’s debt reduction crusade. On March 12th, the company announced that it intended to offer $550 million in Senior Notes. The offer was obviously met with huge interest because later that same day Sirius XM increased the size of the bond offering to $800 million, and priced it without a new issuance discount. The notes were priced at 8.75% interest on March 17th and were used to repurchase all $500 million of the outstanding 9 5/8% Senior Notes due 2013, as well as $244 million under the company’s Senior Secured term loan due 2012. Read More

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