Posts Tagged ‘Edmunds’

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official November Forecast

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Posted 29 Nov 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

EdmundsWith Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) needing to bring in 442,000 new subscribers during the fourth quarter to meet its full-year subscriber guidance of 1.6 million net additions and the company deriving the large majority of its new subscribers additions from OEM Satellite Radio activations, investors are closely watching the auto sales channel for signs off strength heading into the close of year.

There were positive forces in the auto market in November, as more inventory was available and automakers began year-end holiday sales events. Deal-oriented messages work more effectively than ever before.

– Jessica Caldwell, Senior Analyst, Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com released their official November auto sales forecast today and reports that they are seeing positive forces in the auto industry which will push the U.S. new vehicle sales SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for November to the highest level of the year. Edmunds is forecasting total November new car sales of 991,296, which will translate into a 13.6 million SAAR. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official May Forecast

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Posted 26 May 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

EdmundsWith Sirius XM’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) business tied so closely to U.S. auto sales, it’s important for investors to track the OEM channel. While investors have had reason to cheer with how strong auto sales have been thus far this year, concern and uncertainty have lingered in regards to how much the recent earthquake in Japan would affect supply chains and U.S. automobile inventory levels in the coming months. According to Edmunds official auto sales forecast released today, May auto sales will show a decline over April, but Edmunds also reports that Japanese manufacturers may be turning the corner and that the impact of the recent events in Japan on 2011 total vehicle sales may be limited.

Manufacturing disruptions appear to have peaked in April and May, and recent news points to steady improvements moving forward. Toyota said it expects North American production of its top-selling Camry and Corolla models to be back at 100 percent next month, and Nissan’s key engine plant in Japan is returning to full production next week – ahead of schedule. Even Honda, which was the hardest hit of the big three Japanese automakers, is making optimistic statements about its recovery. If the industry continues to recover from the tsunami-driven disruptions at a strong pace, we are optimistic that its impact on 2011 auto sales will be limited.

– Lacey Plache, Edmunds Chief Economist

Edmunds expects new vehicles sold in the month of May (including fleet sales) to be approximately 1,098,000 units, a 0.4% decrease year-over-year and a 5.1% decrease month-over-month. Retail sales for the month are expected to total approximately 865,000 units, down from approximately 915,000 in April. Analysts at Edmunds predict that May’s SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) will come in at 12.2 million, down from 13.2 million last month. SAAR for retail sales decreased month-over-month to about 9.7 million. There are 24 selling days in May 2011, two fewer than May 2010.  Read More

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Exclusive: RBC Capital Markets Analyst David Bank to Discuss Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) — Tonight at 8:00PM ET

Posted 25 May 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

RBC Capital Markets - Sirius XM - SIRIRBC Capital Markets Global Media Analyst, David Bank, will be joining Playground Radio for a live, exclusive interview to discuss his thoughts on Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) tonight, Wednesday, May 25th, 2011, at 8:00PM ET. Following Sirius XM’s first quarter results, Bank reiterated a Sector Perform/Speculative Risk rating and $1.50 price target on the equity. In his most recent research report, Bank noted that Sirius XM’s fundamentals and balance sheet were relatively solid, but that he didn’t view the current valuation compelling.

David Bank - RBC Capital Markets - Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)

David Bank

David Bank is a highly regarded analyst who brings many years of experience in equity research, high-yield research, and investment banking. He was named a Wall Street Journal Best on the Street for the media sector in 2009, and has also received recognition as an earnings estimator in the annual StarMine rankings (No. 1 in 2007, No. 3 in 2009). David joined RBC Capital Markets in 2000 from ING Barings, where he was a senior member of the equity research division. Prior to that, he worked in the high-yield research division at ING Barings, covering telecommunications and media companies. Before becoming a research analyst, David was an investment banker at both Furman Selz LLC (later acquired by ING Barings) and CS First Boston.

David Bank will be interviewed this evening by Satellite Radio Playground’s Demian Russian and his special guest co-host this week, Spencer Osborne of SiriusBuzz. Following tonight’s interview with Mr. Bank, Edmunds.com Senior Analyst and AutoObserver.com Editor-in-Chief Michelle Krebs will be calling in to discuss the auto industry and offer an update on how the May auto sales numbers are shaping up. Demian Russian and Spencer Osborne will then be discussing all of the latest news in the world of Satellite Radio. Mr. Osborne attended Sirius XM’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders this morning and will also be sharing his thoughts on the event. Listeners are welcome to call in and be apart of the live discussion by dialing (347) 934-0239.  Read More

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Maxim Group Analyst John Tinker Offers Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) Earnings Preview

Posted 20 Apr 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Howard Stern, Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

Maxim Group - John Tinker - Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI)By Demian Russian

Maxim Group Senior Media Analyst John Tinker issues a new research note offering a Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) earnings preview, reiterating a BUY rating and $2.20 price target on the equity. Tinker previously upgraded his price target from $1.80 to $2.20 on February 16th following Sirius XM’s Q4 results. He anticipates the company to report Q1 results during the last week of this month or the first week in May.

We continue to recommend the stock with a price target of $2.20, a multiple of 20x estimated 2012 estimated free cash per share of $0.11. The stock is currently trading at 17.9x 2011 EV with a long term EBITDA growth rate of 24%. We are anticipating a share buyback as free cash flow grows. Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LCAPA) is in the wings with its 40% holding and appears to be interested in increasing its stake if SIRI slips and accessing the $8 billion NOL.

– John Tinker, Maxim Group Senior Media Analyst

While Tinker notes that it is not unusual for SIRI to trade up going into earnings and then subsequently fall on the reported results, he sees the main overhang being the “uncertainty of car production given the problems in Japan and the potential slowdown in car sales given the recent increase in gas prices.” He observes management taking a cautious stance, but believes they would like to beat that.  Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) To Benefit From Stronger Than Expected February Auto Sales

Posted 02 Mar 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Auto SalesWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) business tied so closely to the OEM channel, the year is beginning to shape up nicely for the Satellite Radio service provider with February auto sales coming in stronger than expected. According to Edmunds.com, total vehicle sales for the month came in close to 994,000. This translates to a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 13.3 million.

January and February are traditionally the weakest selling months of the year, but February’s SAAR showed sales strength not seen since August 2009, during the time of the “Cash for Clunkers” government stimulus program. With the first two months of the year historically being weak, the sales strength seen in January and then continuing stronger in February bodes well for the auto industry going into March, when spring sales typically begin to ramp. “This was a good month moving into March,” said Jessica Caldwell, the Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds.

The strength in February was seen across the board, with all of the Big 6 automakers producing double digit gains year-over-year. General Motors (NYSE:GM) led the pack reporting a 46% increase, followed by Toyota (NYSE:TM) with 43%, Nissan (NSNAY) with 32%, Honda (NYSE:HMC) with 22%, Chrysler with 13%, and Ford (NYSE:F) with 10%.

Hyundai posted record sales for the month, up 17% month-over-month and 28% year-over-year. Hyundai sales were driven by retail sales through dealerships, which rose 46% year-over-year. The Sonata saw a 103% retail increase, followed by the new Elantra with a 74% increase. As sales shifted towards retail, fleet sales saw a 22% decline. “Consumer activity was high, credit was readily available and the overall impact on the Hyundai business was really encouraging,” said Dave Zuchowski, Hyundai Motor America’s executive vice president of national sales.

Kia also reported its best February sales ever, up 36.4% year-over-year and 18.1% month-over-month. February was the sixth month in a row of record breaking sales for the Korean automaker. “With back-to-back monthly sales records in 2011 we are well ahead of last year’s record first quarter sales pace,” said Byung Mo Ahn, CEO of KMA and Kia Motors Manufacturing Georgia.

Sirius XM has a 100% penetration rate in new vehicles manufactured by both Hyundai and Kia. Read More

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Exclusive: Barrington Research Associates’ James C. Goss To Weigh In On Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) — Tonight at 8:00PM ET

Posted 23 Feb 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

James C. Goss - Barrington - Sirius - XM - SIRI

James C. Goss

James C. Goss, Barrington Research Associates Senior Investment Analyst covering the Media and Entertainment Industry, will be weighing in on Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) in an exclusive, live interview with Playground Radio, tonight, Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011, at 8:00PM Eastern.

Following Sirius XM’s Q4 2010 reported financial and operating results, Goss reiterated his OUTPERFORM rating and raised his price target to $2.40 from the prior $1.85, which SIRI surpassed by a penny going into the quarter. Goss also moved Barrington’s quality rating on the equity from Speculative to Aggressive. At $2.40, Goss currently has the highest base price target on the street.

We feel the momentum being established in earnings, EBITDA growth and improvement in financial position justify an additional bump in our target multiple. We are looking at this situation as one in which a sort of PEG ratio approach is justified, but with EBITDA growth as the driving metric. We feel gains in the 20-30% range over the next several years seem sustainable as revenues move higher based on sub growth and potential price adjustments, costs are kept in check and improved finances help interest expense and capital expenditure levels. Improved free cash flow will enable share buybacks…

– James C. Goss, Barrington Research Associates

Goss saw Sirius XM ending fiscal 2010 with continuing strength, building on the positive momentum that it has established over the last two years. Goss sees declining capital expenditures fueling FCF (Free Cash Flow) trends, as total capex is expected to decline by $90 million this year and by another $100 million in 2012. Goss is expecting Sirius XM to produce $725 million in EBITDA this year. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official January 2011 Forecast

Posted 27 Jan 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

edmundsWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) business model tied so closely to the OEM channel, many analysts and investors alike keep a close watch on how new vehicle sales are tracking. Edmunds.com released their official January auto sales forecast today. Edmunds is estimating January new vehicle sales to come in at 816,000 and a monthly SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 12.57 million.

January’s sales figures continue a trend of steady, sustainable growth for the auto industry. What’s even more encouraging is that this month’s figures were less dependent on fleet sales than last year. That means 2011 is already seeing a more robust retail market supported by individual consumers.

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

While Edmunds’ forecast for 816,000 total units sold would indicate a month-over-month decline of 28.4% from December, it also would indicate a year-over-year increase of 17.3% from January 2010. “January is typically the worst sales month of the calendar year, so this is an impressive jumping off point for 2011,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. Due to January’s historical weakness, 816,000 units sold is still enough to show a month-over-month SAAR improvement to 12.57 million from December 2010′s 12.48 million SAAR. “Because this year’s January baseline is so much higher than the last two years, carmakers can be reasonably optimistic that this growth can continue,” added Caldwell. January 2011 had 24 selling days, the same as January 2010. Read More

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TrueCar Analyst Jesse Toprak to Discuss Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and the Auto Industry — Tonight At 8:00PM ET

Posted 19 Jan 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Jesse Toprak to discuss Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends & Insights at TrueCar, Inc., will be discussing U.S. auto sales and all of the latest news from the Detroit Auto Show in a live, exclusive interview on Playground Radio tonight, Wednesday, January 19th, 2011, at 8:00 p.m. ET. With auto sales so important to Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) subscriber growth and business model, the current state as well as the future outlook for U.S. auto sales will be discussed. Mr. Toprak also attended the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and will be offering his thoughts on Sirius XM and internet radio as well. A true industry expert, Toprak tracks the leasing segment and the automotive credit market closely as well.

TrueCar.com’s Jesse Toprak continues to be one of the most frequently quoted automotive analysts of this decade. After running several franchise dealerships in the Midwest, he spent nine years with Edmunds.com, helping the site transform from a newcomer to an industry leader. Jesse studied at Beloit College, London School of Economics, and Marmara University for his B.A and received his MBA from Northern Illinois University.

Tonight’s interview with Jesse Toprak will be conducted by Demian Russian with Brian “Newman” Rayl. After tonight’s interview with Mr. Toprak, a discussion on all of the latest in the world of Satellite Radio will follow. Listeners are welcome to call in and join the live discussion by dialing (347) 934-0239 and following the voice prompts by pushing #1 on your keypad to speak to the host. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) & Auto Sales: Edmunds Forecasts 12.2 Million SAAR For November

Posted 24 Nov 2010 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

edmundsBy Demian Russian

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. Edmunds released their forecast for November U.S. auto sales today and things are looking pretty good for Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) going into the end of the year. The large majority of Sirius XM’s subscriber growth comes from the OEM channel. Analysts at Edmunds are projecting a November SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) of 12.2 million, which matches last month’s October SAAR. While Edmunds is projecting total November vehicle sales of 865,000, which is a 8.1% drop month-over-month, November is historically one of the weakest sales months of the year. 865,000 vehicles sold in November would equate to a 17% year-over-year improvement. Edmunds sees this strong November forecast indicating “stability in an otherwise still unsettled economy.”

Seasonal fluctuations notwithstanding, we’re seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn. The automakers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality.

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Chrysler, Ford (NYSE:F),and General Motors (NYSE:GM) are projected to have 45.5% U.S. market share in November, up 0.7% year-over-year and up 0.3% month-over-month. This increasing strength in the Big 3′s market share bodes well for Sirius XM Radio’s subscriber growth, due to their high Satellite Radio penetration rates. Read More

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Sirius XM (SIRI): Edmunds Releases September Auto Sales Forecast

Posted 23 Sep 2010 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

edmundsby Demian Russian

With Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) subscription business model tied so closely to the OEM channel, it’s important to keep an eye on how U.S. auto sales are tracking. According to Edmunds’ official September auto sales forecast released today, auto sales seem to be holding steady, although stagnant. Playground Radio listeners were offered a peek of Edmunds official report on last nights show from Jessica Caldwell, the Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds, before it was released to the public today.

“Despite some noteworthy new car introductions, auto sales are stagnant right now. Automakers seem to have accepted the current sales rate; most seem reluctant to invigorate the market through traditional incentives programs or unload significant levels of inventory as fleet sales.”

–Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Edmunds is estimating auto sales for the month of September to total 936,900 vehicles, which is close to a 28% increase year-over-year. Edmunds notes in their report that September 2009 was a “Cash for Clunkers hangover month.” Although Edmunds forecasts September auto sales to decline close to 6% month-over-month from August, they project the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) to track up to 11.47 million for September from 11.44 million in August. Edmunds noted that automaker incentives were down 3.1% month-over-month and 4.7% year-over-year.

One notable positive in Edmunds’ report for Sirius XM was that fleet sales were not overinflated in September, as they were earlier in the year. Feet sales traditionally carry lower Satellite Radio penetration rates than retail sales. Edmunds forecasted fleet sales to account for only about 19 percent of September’s total sales. Edmunds estimates that the retail share of September sales will translate into a SAAR of 9.4 million. Read More

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