Posts Tagged ‘Jessica Caldwell’

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official November Forecast

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Posted 29 Nov 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

EdmundsWith Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) needing to bring in 442,000 new subscribers during the fourth quarter to meet its full-year subscriber guidance of 1.6 million net additions and the company deriving the large majority of its new subscribers additions from OEM Satellite Radio activations, investors are closely watching the auto sales channel for signs off strength heading into the close of year.

There were positive forces in the auto market in November, as more inventory was available and automakers began year-end holiday sales events. Deal-oriented messages work more effectively than ever before.

– Jessica Caldwell, Senior Analyst, Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com released their official November auto sales forecast today and reports that they are seeing positive forces in the auto industry which will push the U.S. new vehicle sales SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for November to the highest level of the year. Edmunds is forecasting total November new car sales of 991,296, which will translate into a 13.6 million SAAR. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds’ Official April Forecast

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Posted 29 Apr 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

EdmundsWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) subscription business model tied so closely to the OEM channel, SIRI investors have reason to cheer when looking at how strong U.S. auto sales have been so far this year. While there are widespread concerns and uncertainty lingering on the horizon regarding how the recent tragedy in Japan will affect supply chains and U.S. automobile inventory levels moving forward, April is expected to be another strong month for auto sales according to Edmunds’ newly released official monthly forecast.

As inventories rapidly deteriorate, April could be thelast monththat we’ll see strong sales numbers until late summer or early fall. May and June are traditionally high-volume months, and with anticipated supply constraints – especially on the fuel-efficient vehicles that have been in higher demand with spiked gas prices – inventories will be exhausted further. The big unknown is how this market will adjust to supply restrictions, when demand has been the key problem for the past three years.

– Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com Senior Analyst

While Edmunds.com expects April to be the last month of higher sales rates for awhile, as inventory levels grow more constrained, they are expecting the total number of vehicles sold in the month of April to be approximately 1,171,000, a 19% increase year-over-year, but a 6% decrease month-over-month. The SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) for April is expected to come in at 13.3 million, an increase over last month’s 13.1 million.  Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) To Benefit From Stronger Than Expected February Auto Sales

Posted 02 Mar 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Auto SalesWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) business tied so closely to the OEM channel, the year is beginning to shape up nicely for the Satellite Radio service provider with February auto sales coming in stronger than expected. According to Edmunds.com, total vehicle sales for the month came in close to 994,000. This translates to a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 13.3 million.

January and February are traditionally the weakest selling months of the year, but February’s SAAR showed sales strength not seen since August 2009, during the time of the “Cash for Clunkers” government stimulus program. With the first two months of the year historically being weak, the sales strength seen in January and then continuing stronger in February bodes well for the auto industry going into March, when spring sales typically begin to ramp. “This was a good month moving into March,” said Jessica Caldwell, the Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds.

The strength in February was seen across the board, with all of the Big 6 automakers producing double digit gains year-over-year. General Motors (NYSE:GM) led the pack reporting a 46% increase, followed by Toyota (NYSE:TM) with 43%, Nissan (NSNAY) with 32%, Honda (NYSE:HMC) with 22%, Chrysler with 13%, and Ford (NYSE:F) with 10%.

Hyundai posted record sales for the month, up 17% month-over-month and 28% year-over-year. Hyundai sales were driven by retail sales through dealerships, which rose 46% year-over-year. The Sonata saw a 103% retail increase, followed by the new Elantra with a 74% increase. As sales shifted towards retail, fleet sales saw a 22% decline. “Consumer activity was high, credit was readily available and the overall impact on the Hyundai business was really encouraging,” said Dave Zuchowski, Hyundai Motor America’s executive vice president of national sales.

Kia also reported its best February sales ever, up 36.4% year-over-year and 18.1% month-over-month. February was the sixth month in a row of record breaking sales for the Korean automaker. “With back-to-back monthly sales records in 2011 we are well ahead of last year’s record first quarter sales pace,” said Byung Mo Ahn, CEO of KMA and Kia Motors Manufacturing Georgia.

Sirius XM has a 100% penetration rate in new vehicles manufactured by both Hyundai and Kia. Read More

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Exclusive: Barrington Research Associates’ James C. Goss To Weigh In On Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) — Tonight at 8:00PM ET

Posted 23 Feb 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

James C. Goss - Barrington - Sirius - XM - SIRI

James C. Goss

James C. Goss, Barrington Research Associates Senior Investment Analyst covering the Media and Entertainment Industry, will be weighing in on Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) in an exclusive, live interview with Playground Radio, tonight, Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011, at 8:00PM Eastern.

Following Sirius XM’s Q4 2010 reported financial and operating results, Goss reiterated his OUTPERFORM rating and raised his price target to $2.40 from the prior $1.85, which SIRI surpassed by a penny going into the quarter. Goss also moved Barrington’s quality rating on the equity from Speculative to Aggressive. At $2.40, Goss currently has the highest base price target on the street.

We feel the momentum being established in earnings, EBITDA growth and improvement in financial position justify an additional bump in our target multiple. We are looking at this situation as one in which a sort of PEG ratio approach is justified, but with EBITDA growth as the driving metric. We feel gains in the 20-30% range over the next several years seem sustainable as revenues move higher based on sub growth and potential price adjustments, costs are kept in check and improved finances help interest expense and capital expenditure levels. Improved free cash flow will enable share buybacks…

– James C. Goss, Barrington Research Associates

Goss saw Sirius XM ending fiscal 2010 with continuing strength, building on the positive momentum that it has established over the last two years. Goss sees declining capital expenditures fueling FCF (Free Cash Flow) trends, as total capex is expected to decline by $90 million this year and by another $100 million in 2012. Goss is expecting Sirius XM to produce $725 million in EBITDA this year. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official January 2011 Forecast

Posted 27 Jan 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

edmundsWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) business model tied so closely to the OEM channel, many analysts and investors alike keep a close watch on how new vehicle sales are tracking. Edmunds.com released their official January auto sales forecast today. Edmunds is estimating January new vehicle sales to come in at 816,000 and a monthly SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 12.57 million.

January’s sales figures continue a trend of steady, sustainable growth for the auto industry. What’s even more encouraging is that this month’s figures were less dependent on fleet sales than last year. That means 2011 is already seeing a more robust retail market supported by individual consumers.

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

While Edmunds’ forecast for 816,000 total units sold would indicate a month-over-month decline of 28.4% from December, it also would indicate a year-over-year increase of 17.3% from January 2010. “January is typically the worst sales month of the calendar year, so this is an impressive jumping off point for 2011,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. Due to January’s historical weakness, 816,000 units sold is still enough to show a month-over-month SAAR improvement to 12.57 million from December 2010′s 12.48 million SAAR. “Because this year’s January baseline is so much higher than the last two years, carmakers can be reasonably optimistic that this growth can continue,” added Caldwell. January 2011 had 24 selling days, the same as January 2010. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) & Auto Sales: Edmunds Forecasts 12.2 Million SAAR For November

Posted 24 Nov 2010 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

edmundsBy Demian Russian

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. Edmunds released their forecast for November U.S. auto sales today and things are looking pretty good for Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) going into the end of the year. The large majority of Sirius XM’s subscriber growth comes from the OEM channel. Analysts at Edmunds are projecting a November SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) of 12.2 million, which matches last month’s October SAAR. While Edmunds is projecting total November vehicle sales of 865,000, which is a 8.1% drop month-over-month, November is historically one of the weakest sales months of the year. 865,000 vehicles sold in November would equate to a 17% year-over-year improvement. Edmunds sees this strong November forecast indicating “stability in an otherwise still unsettled economy.”

Seasonal fluctuations notwithstanding, we’re seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn. The automakers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality.

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Chrysler, Ford (NYSE:F),and General Motors (NYSE:GM) are projected to have 45.5% U.S. market share in November, up 0.7% year-over-year and up 0.3% month-over-month. This increasing strength in the Big 3′s market share bodes well for Sirius XM Radio’s subscriber growth, due to their high Satellite Radio penetration rates. Read More

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Sirius XM (SIRI): Edmunds Releases September Auto Sales Forecast

Posted 23 Sep 2010 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

edmundsby Demian Russian

With Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) subscription business model tied so closely to the OEM channel, it’s important to keep an eye on how U.S. auto sales are tracking. According to Edmunds’ official September auto sales forecast released today, auto sales seem to be holding steady, although stagnant. Playground Radio listeners were offered a peek of Edmunds official report on last nights show from Jessica Caldwell, the Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds, before it was released to the public today.

“Despite some noteworthy new car introductions, auto sales are stagnant right now. Automakers seem to have accepted the current sales rate; most seem reluctant to invigorate the market through traditional incentives programs or unload significant levels of inventory as fleet sales.”

–Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Edmunds is estimating auto sales for the month of September to total 936,900 vehicles, which is close to a 28% increase year-over-year. Edmunds notes in their report that September 2009 was a “Cash for Clunkers hangover month.” Although Edmunds forecasts September auto sales to decline close to 6% month-over-month from August, they project the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) to track up to 11.47 million for September from 11.44 million in August. Edmunds noted that automaker incentives were down 3.1% month-over-month and 4.7% year-over-year.

One notable positive in Edmunds’ report for Sirius XM was that fleet sales were not overinflated in September, as they were earlier in the year. Feet sales traditionally carry lower Satellite Radio penetration rates than retail sales. Edmunds forecasted fleet sales to account for only about 19 percent of September’s total sales. Edmunds estimates that the retail share of September sales will translate into a SAAR of 9.4 million. Read More

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Sirius XM (SIRI): Jessica Caldwell To Preview Edmunds’ September Auto Sales Forecast — Tonight At 8:00PM ET

Posted 22 Sep 2010 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

by Demian Russian

edmundsHow are auto sales shaping up for Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) for the month of September? Tune into Playground Radio tonight, Wednesday, September 22nd at 8:00PM ET, for an exclusive, live interview with Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds. Jessica Caldwell will be offering a preview of Edmunds’ official September forecast before it’s released tomorrow. Caldwell will be interviewed by Demian Russian, with Brian “Newman” Rayl and Dennis “Cos” Costa, about the current state of the U.S. auto industry and how auto sales are shaping up for the rest of the year. With auto sales so important to Sirius XM’s subscriber growth and business model, the current state as well as the future outlook for U.S. auto sales will be discussed.

Satellite Radio Playground's Playground Radio is honored to have interviewed Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.comJessica Caldwell is the Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds. She has been with the company since July 2006, having come from Subaru’s product planning department where she served as the Forester Car Line Manager. Earlier in her career, she was a product strategy specialist for Mitsubishi and worked in the dealership real estate division of Toyota Motor Sales, USA. Caldwell earned her BS in Business Administration from the University of Southern California.

With many automaker incentive programs winding down on the heels of Labor Day Weekend, there were signs that auto sales had softened, according to a September 16th Edmunds report. According to that Edmunds report, auto sales for the full month of September were tracking at a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) of approximately 11.3 million. Edmunds senior analyst Ray Zhou noted that “as soon as the holiday weekend was over, car-shopping activity fell about 40 percent.” Ford (NYSE: F), Chrysler, Volkswagen, and BMW sales were all lagging when compared to their sales pace for the first two weeks in August. Most of the other automakers were maintaining stable sales, with Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Nissan showing single digit improvements, when compared to the same period. Jessica Caldwell noted that “the sales trendline for the rest of the year may begin tracking downward.” Read More

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Edmunds Forecasts July Auto Sales: Good News For Sirius XM (SIRI)

Posted 30 Jul 2010 — by Dennis "Cos" Costa
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

edmundsBy Dennis “Cos” Costa

On July 29th Edmunds.com released its forecast for July auto sales and the news was encouraging. Edmunds is expecting the strongest sales month since Cash-for-Clunkers just a year ago. For Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) this can only be good news. With Sirius XM being so closely tied to the automotive industry’s recovery and their continued growth, due to their contracts with automakers to factory install their radios, continued stability in vehicle sales is welcomed by Sirius XM shareholders.

Edmunds sees July vehicle sales, including fleet, coming in at 1,064,00 units, an increase of 8.4% from July 2009, and an 8.9% increase from June of 2010. These numbers represent to Edmunds.com analysts that July’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 11.8M, up from 11.1M in June 2010.

“July sales numbers should be the highest we’ve seen since last August’s Cash-for-Clunkers frenzy. Retail demand for new cars this month has been the strongest of the year, even more than in March when Toyota launched an aggressive incentive campaign and other automakers followed suit”

Ray Zhou, PHD, Senior Analyst for Edmunds.com

U.S. automakers’ market share for July is estimated to be 44.9%, down sequentially from 46.8% in June 2010 and up year-over-year from 44.3% in July 2009. July 2010 had 27 selling days, one more than July 2009. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 4.4% overall from July 2009.

“Consumers have been conditioned to think that the summer is a great time to pick up a deal on a new car. The bargain-hunting mentality that reigns in the marketplace today, and automakers’ ads promoting the clearance of old inventory, are driving people to dealerships in search of deals which, frankly aren’t all that generous this year.”

Jessica Caldwell, Senior Analyst at Edmunds.com

Despite there being an actual lack of incentives available and deals being offered by automakers, the perception is still out there for consumers that these sales numbers are representing a demand for what the automakers are presenting at each given price point. Read More

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Sirius XM (SIRI): Jessica Caldwell To Offer Preview of Edmunds’ July Auto Sales Forecast — Tonight At 8:00PM ET

Posted 21 Jul 2010 — by Demian Russian
Category Sirius XM (SIRI) News

by Demian Russian

edmundsWith auto sales being so closely tied to Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) business model, it’s important for investors to follow the OEM sector closely. With Edmunds reporting yesterday that early July sales were tracking close to a 12 million SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate), it may appear on the surface that a full recovery is underway, but it’s a lot more complicated than that. As this summer moves into a period where year-over-year comparisons are made with last summer’s Cash For Clunkers period, tracking auto sales trends becomes more confusing.

According to Edmunds CEO Jeremy Anwyl, July and August are traditionally bargain shopping months because of model year close-outs. “July and August sales may suggest a rebound, but the underlying trends haven’t changed,” he explains. According to Edmunds’ analysis, 88 percent of new cars sold last month were from the 2010 model year. Edmunds Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell pointed out that many consumers have a psychology that now is a good time to buy a new car due to the perception that incentives are high during this period, but in actuality current incentives are not especially generous right now.

“Inventory is relatively low and automakers are reluctant to cut into profit margins more than necessary. However, brands are advertising big sales events and consumers are responding.”

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Another issue to consider is the state of the subprime credit environment. In 2009, the subprime lending approval rate crashed to 5% from an historic 60% average. It’s only recovered to 9%, with less than one in ten subprime auto purchase loans being approved. Subprime customers are currently responsible for only 1% of General Motors’ annual sales. There are signs that subprime lending is expanding, with Chrysler and GM initiating relationships with subprime lending arms, but how long until full recovery kicks in? “Everyone’s being kind of cautious still because they’re afraid of a double-dip recession and unemployment is still high,” says Fitch Ratings analyst Meghan Neenan. Read More

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