Posts Tagged ‘SAAR’

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: TrueCar Forecasts Highest April SAAR Since 2007

Posted 25 Apr 2012 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Media, Radio Industry, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

auto sales - new car salesSirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin stated during the company’s last quarterly conference call that the consensus for 2012 total U.S light vehicle sales was $13.7 million and that the expected year-over-year growth of 8% provided a “solid foundation for subscriber growth this year.” While offering up full-year 2012 net new subscriber guidance of only 1.3 million, which comes in below the 1.7 million net new subscribers the company was able to generate last year and even below the 1.4 million the company was able to garner in 2010, Karmazin even added that he was “very optimistic about our ability to grow subscribers” and that he expected a “bigger contribution from the reactivation of radios in used cars” this year. With so much optimism, why guide for only 1.3 million net subscriber adds? Karmazin explained that management’s 2012 full-year subscriber guidance was “tempered by our sense of conservatism around the price increase we implemented January 1st, 2012.” That being said, Karmazin did add, “We will update our guidance, if appropriate, as the year progresses.”

In light of a strengthening auto sales channel, it may become more “appropriate” to raise subscriber guidance. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: February New Car Sales Expected to Be the Highest in Nearly Four Years — TrueCar Upgrades 2012 Forecast to 14.0 Million

Posted 24 Feb 2012 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Media, Radio Industry, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Auto Sales - Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)During Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) Q4 conference call CEO Mel Karmazin stated, “The consensus for auto sales in 2012 is approximately $13.7 million…the fact that U.S. light vehicle sales should be up by 8% provides a solid foundation for subscriber growth this year.” Sirius XM management offered 2012 guidance for 1.3 million net new subscriber additions, which comes in below 2011′s 1.7 million and even 2010′s 1.4 million net new sub adds. While Karmazin even noted that he was “very optimistic about our ability to grow subscribers” and that he expects a “bigger contribution from the reactivation of radios in used cars” in 2012, he explained that the comapany’s subscriber guidance was “tempered by our sense of conservatism around the price increase we implemented January 1st, 2012.” Karmazin added, “We will update our guidance, if appropriate, as the year progresses.”

The year seems to be progressing well for auto sales according to TrueCar’s official February 2012 auto sales and incentives forecast, released today. TrueCar expects new car sales in February to be the highest in nearly four years. TrueCar is forecasting that new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) during the month of February will total 1,088,321 units, up 19.2% month-over-month and 9.6% year-over-year. This translates into a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 14.3 million, up from 13.3 million in February 2011 and up from 14.2 million in January 2012. TrueCar also upgraded its 2012 total sales forecast from 13.8 to 14.0 million. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI): Strong New Car Sales in January Indicates a Good Start for 2012 According to TrueCar Official Forecast

Posted 25 Jan 2012 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) - New Car SalesWith SIrius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin pre-announcing that the company has beat their 2011 year-end net subscriber guidance, adding ~550,000 net new subscribers in the fourth quarter and ~1,700,000 net new subscribers in 2011, investors are now focused on how 2012 is shaping up so far. While Sirius XM is making great new strides in penetrating the used auto market with free promotional trial programs, North American new vehicle sales remains the largest driver fueling Sirius XM’s subscriber growth trajectory.

Premier auto industry tracker TrueCar released their official January 2012 auto sales forecast today and is seeing continuing strength in the U.S. auto sector, noting that January retail sales will be up for the sixth straight month of year-over-year growth.

The underlying consumer demand for new vehicles continues to improve at a steady pace. For the first time in several years, we are starting the year off with a warm and fuzzy feeling of the good-old-days where the industry and the consumers are once again focused on the excitement of the new cars –and not which car company is going to survive. The positive momentum from the end of 2011 and a reasonable January 2012 sales rate will likely take industry sales very close to 14 million units this year.

– Jesse Toprak, Vice President, Market Intelligence, TrueCar.com

According to TrueCar’s January 2012 official forecast, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. for the month of January will total 874, 481 units, up 6.7% year-over-year and down 29.6% month-over-month, which translates into a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 13.6 million, up from 12.7 million in January 2011 and flat month-over-month. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and December Auto Sales: Highest Unit Sales Since March 2011 According to TrueCar

Posted 27 Dec 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Media, Radio Industry, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and December Auto SalesWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) subscription radio business tied so closely to North American auto sales and Satellite Radio activations at the OEM level, and with the company needing to bring in 442,000 net new subscribers during the fourth quarter to meet its 2011 full-year subscriber guidance for 1.6 million net additions, investors are closely monitoring the U.S auto industry for continuing signs of strength heading into the close of the year.

TrueCar released their official December 2011 sales and inventives forecast today and is expecting total new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) for the month of December will be 1,236,911 units, representing an 8.1% year-over-year and a 24.4% month-over-month improvement. This translates into a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 13.5 million, down from a November SAAR of 13.7 million but up year-over-year from a December 2010 SAAR of 12.5 million.

December’s sales rate was a continuation of the rather slow and steady recovery that now symbolizes 2011. This year was absent of a blockbuster sales month but we see this pace of growth as healthy and sustainable in the coming year where the industry is going to sell nearly 14 million units based on the merits of its products and improved economy.

– Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com

While fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19% of the month’s total sales, TrueCar expects retail sales to be up 8.7% year-over-year and 26% month-over-month. Higher retail sales are traditionally more beneficial to Sirius XM, carrying higher penetration and conversion rates. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official November Forecast

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Posted 29 Nov 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

EdmundsWith Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) needing to bring in 442,000 new subscribers during the fourth quarter to meet its full-year subscriber guidance of 1.6 million net additions and the company deriving the large majority of its new subscribers additions from OEM Satellite Radio activations, investors are closely watching the auto sales channel for signs off strength heading into the close of year.

There were positive forces in the auto market in November, as more inventory was available and automakers began year-end holiday sales events. Deal-oriented messages work more effectively than ever before.

– Jessica Caldwell, Senior Analyst, Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com released their official November auto sales forecast today and reports that they are seeing positive forces in the auto industry which will push the U.S. new vehicle sales SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for November to the highest level of the year. Edmunds is forecasting total November new car sales of 991,296, which will translate into a 13.6 million SAAR. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and November Auto Sales: Highest SAAR for New Vehicle Sales Since Cash for Clunkers According to TrueCar.com

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Posted 23 Nov 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Auto Sales - Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)With Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) subscription business tied so closely to OEM Satellite Radio activations, many investors have their eyes on continuing signs of recovery in the U.S. auto industry.

TrueCar.com released their official November 2011 sales and inventives forecast today and is forecasting that the new U.S. light vehicle sales SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) for the month of November will reach 13.3 million, up month-over-month from 13.2 million in October and up 11.5% year-over-year from 12.3 million in November 2010. Total new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 972,712 units, up 11.5 percent year-over-year from November 2010, but down 4.7% month-over-month from October 2011 (on an adjusted basis). This translates to the highest new vehicle sales SAAR since Cash for Clunkers.

We’ve seen six straight months of year-over-year gains for new vehicle sales, which shows positive momentum for the auto industry. There is a strong possibility that we could reach a 14 million SAAR next month.

– Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com

According to TrueCar’s forecast, retail auto sales are up 12.2% year-over-year, with fleet and rental sales expected to make up 19% of the total industry sales for the month. TrueCar is seeing an uptick in incentive spending by the automakers across the board in November and are forecasting that the average incentive spending per unit for the month will come in at $2,534. Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI): RBC Capital Markets Analyst David Bank Maintains $2.00 Price Target

Posted 04 Nov 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

RBC Capital Markets on Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)RBC Capital Markets Global Media Analyst David Bank issues a new research report weighing in on Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) third quarter earnings results, maintaining his previous $2.00 price target and Sector Perform/Speculative Risk rating on the equity. While Bank describes Sirius XM’s third quarter results as being less than perfect, it’s the stock valuation as opposed to any operational issues which he says “keeps us on the sidelines.”

Sirius XM’s reported Q3 net subscriber additions of 334k came in below Bank’s estimate for 385k. According to Bank, the weakness in net sub adds lead to the company reporting higher EBITDA, as a result of the associated SAC (Subscriber Acquisition Costs) being lower. While net subscriber additions came in lower as a result of lower net promotional subs, Bank says, “Quite frankly, we aren’t sure why net promotional sub additions came in ~65k below our expectations.” He says that part of it may have been the result of a weaker U.S. auto sales SAAR during the summer months and a slowdown in the OEM production cycle in Asia, due to residual impact from the earthquake in Japan. While Bank reduced some of his full-year 2011 estimates slightly, he expects a bounce in the fourth quarter due to “solid OEM trends in 3Q11 sales and production.” Read More

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: New Vehicle Sales Expected to Reach Highest SAAR in Over Two Years According to TrueCar Forecast

Posted 25 Oct 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

TrueCarWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) business tied so closely to its OEM partners and new vehicle sales, many investors are watching for continuing signs of stability and recovery in the U.S. auto industry.

TrueCar released their official October 2011 auto sales and incentives forecast today and is projecting that the new light vehicle sales SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) for the month of October will reach 13.4 million, up month-over-month from 13.1 million in September and up year-over-year from 12.2 million in October 2010, the highest SAAR in over two years and the highest since August of 2009. TrueCar is forecasting that total U.S. light vehicle sales (including fleet) for the month of October will total 1,035,042 units, up 9.0% year-over-year from October 2010.

Consumers are no longer dragging their feet on new vehicle purchases as they feel the economy is moving in the right direction. This will be the fifth straight month where SAAR will rise and the highest we’ve seen in over two years.

–  Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends & Insights at TrueCar, Inc.

While TrueCar expects fleet and rental sales to make up 20% of October’s total industry sales, total retail vehicle sales, which traditionally carry a higher conversion rate for Sirius XM than do fleet sales, are expected to be up 9.8% year-over-year and 0.5% month-over-month. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI): Morgan Stanley Lowers Price Target from $2.60 to $2.00, Reiterates OVERWEIGHT Rating

Posted 10 Oct 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

Morgan Stanley - Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) analyst coverage

By Demian Russian

Morgan Stanley issues a new research report on Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) today reiterating their previous OVERWEIGHT rating, but lowering their base price target on the equity from $2.60 to $2.00 on their reduced longer-term FCF and U.S auto sales SAAR estimates following what they described as a “broader market and sector selloff.”

Even with a reduced US auto sales forecast, we continue to believe SIRI can produce ~25% annual EBITDA growth in ‘12E-‘14E. However, we are lowering our price target on lower estimates as we incorporate a lower yield from the company’s announced ’12 price increase, lower SAAR and broader market and peer group multiple compression.

– Benjamin Swinburne, CFA, Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne said that their reiteration of an OVERWEIGHT rating on SIRI was driven by the company’s accelerating top line growth, fueled by the recovery in U.S auto sales and the coming price increases in 2012, attractive marginal economics combined with continuing merger related synergies, which will drive margin expansion and rapid EBITDA growth, and the potential for the company to institute a share buyback program in 2012. Read More

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Wunderlich Securities Analyst Matthew Harrigan on the Dueling OEM/Dealer Announcements from Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Pandora (NYSE:P)

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Posted 07 Oct 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Internet Radio, Media, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

Wunderlich Securities - Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) - Matthew Harrigan - analyst coverageWunderlich Securities Media Analyst Matthew Harrigan issues a new research report weighing in on the recent “dueling Japanese OEM/Dealer announcements” from Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Pandora (NYSE:P). While Harrigan views Sirius XM’s valuation as becoming more attractive at current trading levels, he maintains a HOLD rating and $2.00 price target on the equity.

The stock is manifestly becoming more attractive at current levels, but we are still concerned about relative valuation within the media sector and hardening out SatRad 2.0 capabilities within Sirius XM’s overall mobile and online strategy.

– Matthew Harrigan, Wunderlich Securities

Harrigan believes that Sirius XM’s newly announced deal with Nissan and Infinity dealers to offer free Sirius XM trial subscriptions on Satellite Radio equipped pre-owned vehicles compliments a similar program with General Motors (NYSE:GM) announced in June, along with trial subscriptions offered by the German automakers BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen. On yesterday’s announcement from Pandora that an embedded version of its service would be available on 2012 Toyota (NYSE:TM) Camrys and Tacomas, he said, “This is the realization of the January 2011 CES announcement that Pandora would be endemic on Toyota’s “Entune” infotainment system.” While noting that iPhone, Blackberry, and Android smartphone data plans can all be utilized to stream Pandora in Toyota vehicles, Harrigan believes that Sirius XM’s wide array of content and continued listener interest in terrestrial radio create more important challenges than the cost of streaming. Read More

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Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) and Auto Sales: TrueCar Forecasts Highest New Vehicle Sales SAAR Since April

Posted 27 Sep 2011 — by Demian Russian
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Demian Russian

TrueCarWith Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) business model tied so strongly to new U.S. auto sales, many investors are looking for continuing signs of recovery/stability in the OEM channel — especially with all of the talk and fear out there that the U.S. economy may be slipping back into a recession.

TrueCar.com released their official September new auto sales forecast today and is forecasting that the new vehicle SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) for the month of September will come in the highest since April. TrueCar is forecasting that total U.S. light vehicle sales for the month of September will total 1,054,599 units, up 10.1% year-over-year and translating into a SAAR of 13.1 million.

New vehicle sales are doing particularly well, even with worries of a recession and another wild month for the financial markets in September. If the current trends hold, we expect 2011 total new light vehicle sales to be 12.75 million units — up 10 percent from 2010.

– Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends & Insights at TrueCar, Inc.

While TrueCar is expecting fleet and rental sales to make up 20% of total new vehicle sales for the month, they are expecting retail sales to be up 10.7% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month. This is good news for Sirius XM investors, as Satellite Radio’s penetration rate is traditionally higher in retail vehicles than in fleet. Read More

September Auto Sales Upbeat: J.D. Power and Associates

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Posted 22 Sep 2011 — by Amy Gilroy
Category Analyst Coverage, Automotive, Sirius XM (SIRI) News

By Amy Gilroy

Auto Sales - New Car SalesDespite a jittery economy, new car sales this month are expected to be much stronger than in August.

New retail vehicle sales in September are on track to hit the highest level since April, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

Retail auto/light truck sales for the month are projected to reach 842,000 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 10.3 million vehicles sales for the year. This is up from 9.6 million units in August and 9.5 million units a year earlier.

“Coming off a solid Labor Day sale, retail sales exhibited unexpected strength in the second week of September, as the recovering inventory levels have helped to bring buyers back into the market,” said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. “However, incentive levels remain flat compared with August and the economy remains a concern, so the sales pace in the second half of the month is expected to give back some of the gains.” Read More